用非概率理论分析混合不确定性结构的可靠性

针对不确定性结构可靠性分析中的输入变量分布参数具有不确定性和输入变量为区间模型的混合不确定性结构展开研究。考虑到可用信息最少的情况,将分布参数的不确定性描述为区间模型。通过等概率转换方法将随机变量与其分布参数进行分离,使问题转化为随机与区间变量混合的可靠性问题,建立了混合不确定性问题的可靠性分析模型。基于非概率可靠性理论,建立混合不确定结构分析模型的二级极限状态函数并结合Kriging代理模型建立了高效的求解方法。将所建立的混合不确定模型应用于飞行器结构的不确定性分析中,验证了所建模型的合理性和所提方法的高效性和准确性。     

正反向量子斯特林循环有限时间热力学性能界限和优化准则

研究了正反向量子斯特林循环的最优性能.在经典极限下,导出了循环的有限时间热力学性能界限和优化准则.得到了斯特林热机、制冷机和热泵特性参数之间的优化关系.     

卫星导航系统的体系安全性分析方法

为了应对卫星导航系统内部复杂关系等体系特征为其安全分析带来的挑战、全面识别和分析卫星导航系统面临的体系安全威胁、提高系统的安全性和服务能力,基于功能依赖网络分析理论提出了从体系角度研究卫星导航系统安全性的建模方法,重点对导航系统内组件系统之间交互关系导致的危险传播、任意失效组合进行了后果分析和原因调查。仿真结果表明该方法能清晰地描述危险传播和失效组合的过程以及进行正逆向的推理分析,也证明了该方法在卫星导航系统安全分析问题上的潜力和适用性。     

卫星在役考核相关问题研究

各类卫星在现代战争中发挥着重要和关键作用。我国传统的卫星试验和鉴定具有很强的科研试验性质,承制单位和用户重点关注的是性能检验,较少考虑作战效能和部队适用性等指标。为推动卫星装备建设和应用,装备试验鉴定部门初步组织开展了相应的在役考核工作。文章对比了美军装备作战试验与鉴定、我国作战试验与在役考核的概念;提出卫星在役考核的六大特点;分析卫星在役考核的组织方式、组织机构和组织保障的不足,提出相应发展建议;研究卫星在役考核指标体系设计、分析评估方法、问题反馈与整改等方面的不足,并提出相应措施建议。     

时间序列分析中的模型定阶策略

模型的定阶问题是时间序列分析(包括参数谱估计、系统辨识,回归分析)研究领域中的一个重要问题。本文对现有的数种模型定阶方法,进行了分析、讨论和归纳,指出了它们所适用的场合及优劣。     

连续求解样本协方差矩阵迹的快速递推算法

为解决当样本数据不断增加时,利用传统方法反复计算样本协方差迹耗时多的缺点,提出了一种快速递推算法。理论分析和仿真试验都表明,算法的时间复杂度比传统的方法降低了一个数量级,从而大大减少了计算时间。     

一种三自由度模型姿态调整机构的正反解分析

提出了一种三自由度模型姿态调整机构。采用回转矩阵方法分析了模型姿态与输入角度的关系,给出了机构的正解,结果表明模型姿态的三个自由度之间存在耦合关系,且表现出非线性。利用机构的运动特点,采用几何方法给出了反解,避免了数值解法的缺陷。     

Bivariate models from univariate life distributions: A characterization cum modeling approach

Bivariate life distribution models are of importance for studying interdependent components. We present a generic approach by introducing a new concept of characterized model in stead of a characterized distribution. It strikes a balance between characterization and modeling approaches to eliminate their individual limitations and incorporate their respective strengths. The proposed model, being a characterized one, admits many important properties irrespective of the choice of marginal distributions. The retention of univariate IFR, DFR, IFRA, DFRA, NBU, and NWU class properties in the bivariate setup has been ensured along with some results on series combinations and convolution. No other models, available in the literature, can ensure simultaneous retention of these fundamental and extremely important class properties. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A balancing problem for mixed model assembly lines with a paced moving conveyor

We state a balancing problem for mixed model assembly lines with a paced moving conveyor as: Given the daily assembling sequence of the models, the tasks of each model, the precedence relations among the tasks, and the operations parameters of the assembly line, assign the tasks of the models to the workstations so as to minimize the total overload time. Several characteristics of the problem are investigated. A line‐balancing heuristic is proposed based on a lower bound of the total overload time. A practical procedure is provided for estimating the deviation of any given line‐balance solution from the theoretical optimum. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the methodology. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Warranty costs: An age‐dependent failure/repair model

An age‐dependent repair model is proposed. The notion of the “calendar age” of the product and the degree of repair are used to define the virtual age of the product. The virtual failure rate function and the virtual hazard function related to the lifetime of the product are discussed. Under a nonhomogeneous Poisson process scenario the expected warranty costs for repairable products associated with linear pro‐rata, nonrenewing free replacement and renewing free replacement warranties are evaluated. Illustration of the results is given by numerical and graphical examples. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.